Does gold have a favourite time of year? To find out, we went through 22 years of gold prices, every month from 2004 to 2026, and measured how the metal performed in each calendar month. The pattern is clearer than you might expect: January has been gold's strongest month by a wide margin, and the late-spring to early-summer stretch has been its weakest. Here is the full breakdown, and the honest caveats before you trade any of it.
Gold's seasonal map, month by month
This chart shows gold's average return in each calendar month from 2004 to 2026, measured from the first price of the month to the last. Gold bars are positive months, red bars are negative.
January is gold's strongest month
The headline finding is the January effect. Over 22 years, gold gained an average of about 3.4% in January, more than double any other month, and finished higher in roughly two thirds of those years. The reasons usually given are a mix of new-year portfolio flows, as funds rebalance into gold at the start of the year, and the build-up of Asian physical demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. February tends to stay firm too, before the pattern cools into spring.
Summer is the soft spot
If gold has a weak season, it is late spring into early summer. June has been the worst month, averaging about -0.8% and finishing positive in under 40% of years, with May also slightly negative on average. This lull is usually attributed to a quiet patch in physical demand between the major buying seasons, when Western markets thin out over the summer. It is the closest gold gets to a "sell in May" tendency, though as always, plenty of individual years broke the pattern.
The late-year run into January
Gold tends to firm up again from late summer. August (+1.8%) and November (+1.3%) are among the strongest months, and the stretch from autumn into the new year has historically been kind to the metal. This is often linked to festival and wedding demand in India, which peaks around Diwali in October and November, alongside steady year-end flows that roll into that powerful January. In other words, the calendar's strongest run bridges the end of one year and the start of the next.
The full month-by-month data
| Month | Avg return | Up years | Range (worst to best) |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | +3.4% | 65% | -6.1% to +13.2% |
| February | +1.4% | 57% | -6.3% to +11.0% |
| March | +0.2% | 43% | -12.6% to +9.9% |
| April | +1.1% | 61% | -9.4% to +11.9% |
| May | -0.3% | 43% | -6.4% to +10.2% |
| June | -0.8% | 39% | -11.8% to +8.6% |
| July | +1.2% | 61% | -6.6% to +10.8% |
| August | +1.8% | 64% | -8.7% to +13.1% |
| September | +0.3% | 45% | -11.1% to +12.0% |
| October | +0.8% | 59% | -17.0% to +7.4% |
| November | +1.3% | 55% | -8.1% to +12.9% |
| December | +0.9% | 59% | -10.5% to +7.9% |
"Up years" is the share of years that month finished positive. "Range" is the weakest and strongest single occurrence of that month in the sample. Pips Perspective analysis of XAU/USD, 2004 to 2026.
The big caveat: this is a tilt, not a timing machine
Before you circle January on your calendar, read this part twice. First, gold has been in a powerful long-term uptrend, averaging about +0.95% across all months over these 22 years, so most months lean positive simply because gold went up a lot. Seasonality is about relative strength, not a free lunch. Second, look at the range column above: the gap between the best and worst version of each month is enormous. January has ranged from -6% to +13%; October has swung from -17% to +7%. An average built from 22 wildly different years tells you almost nothing about what any single year will do.
2026 is the perfect reminder
This year gold ran to record highs and then fell hard into late September, a move driven by surging real yields and a strong dollar, not the calendar. When the macro picture is loud enough, it drowns out seasonality entirely. Which is exactly why you should never trade a seasonal average on its own.
How to actually use seasonality
Used well, seasonality is a context tool, not a signal. It can tilt your bias slightly, make you a touch more willing to look for longs in a historically strong month, or a little more cautious in June, but it should always sit behind the real drivers. As we explain in how rates, inflation and the dollar move gold, those forces decide the actual move in any given month. Combine a seasonal tilt with the macro backdrop and solid technicals, then let risk management do the heavy lifting: risk a small, fixed amount per trade and size every position deliberately. Seasonality might nudge the odds; your risk control is what keeps you in the game.
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Now that you know when gold has tended to move, round out the picture with the how and the why: read how to trade gold, learn the best time of day to trade it, and understand why gold has been rising. Then follow the metal's moves session by session in our daily market wraps.
Frequently asked questions
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This article is for education and information only and is not financial, investment or trading advice, nor a forecast or recommendation. Seasonal averages are drawn from historical data and do not predict future prices; gold can fall in any month, including its historically strong ones. Trading gold, forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you can lose more than your initial deposit. Always do your own research.