Dow Surges 900 Points and Oil Sinks to Two-Month Lows as Iran Strikes Are Called Off
A stark reversal overnight. President Trump called off strikes planned against Iran and suggested a peace agreement could be reached as early as this weekend, flipping the week's risk-off trade on its head. Stocks surged, oil sank to two-month lows, the dollar softened, and the metals bounced off their lows, even as a hot May producer-price report landed almost unnoticed.
Market snapshot
| Instrument | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Inflation data (May PPI, released Jun 11 US time) | ||
| Headline PPI | +1.1% m/m · +6.5% y/y | hot; largest annual rise since Nov 2022 |
| Indices (Jun 11 close) | ||
| S&P 500 | 7,394.30 | +1.75% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,809.66 | +2.54% |
| Dow Jones | 50,848.75 | +1.86% (about +900 pts) |
| Metals, energy & dollar | ||
| Gold (XAU/USD) | back above $4,100; ~$4,190 in current trade | rebound off Nov-2025 lows |
| Silver (XAG/USD) | ~$67 | rebound |
| Brent Crude | ~$89 | lowest in almost 2 months |
| WTI Crude | toward $86 | more than −4% |
| US Dollar Index | just below 100 | softer as safe-haven demand fades |
Levels are approximate, sourced from live price pages and dated reports around the US close and early Asian trade. Individual FX pair levels are omitted where post-session quotes could not be verified. Always check live prices with your broker.
The reversal: strikes called off, deal "close"
After days of escalation that had hammered risk assets, the White House suspended the strikes planned for Thursday evening and signalled that Washington and Tehran were close to an agreement, with reports suggesting a deal could come as early as this weekend. Markets repriced instantly: equities and the riskier metals caught a bid, while the war premium drained out of oil and the dollar.
The PPI print everyone ignored
Lost in the rally: May producer prices ran hot at +1.1% on the month, pushing the annual rate to 6.5%, the largest 12-month rise since November 2022. On a normal day that is a market-moving inflation warning, and it sits awkwardly next to Wednesday's tame core CPI. The Fed meets June 16 to 17, with markets assigning near-certain odds to a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. The pipeline pressure in producer prices is the number to file away for later.
Forex: the dollar loses its haven bid
The dollar index slipped just below 100 as safe-haven demand faded with the de-escalation headlines. With the Fed expected to hold next week, the dollar's direction hangs on whether the peace talk holds; we will keep individual pair levels out until they can be verified against dated quotes.
Metals: a sharp bounce off the lows
Yesterday we wrote about gold cracking toward $4,000. Overnight it snapped back above $4,100 and extended to roughly $4,190 in current trade, while silver rebounded to about $67 from the low $60s. Two violent days in opposite directions is a reminder that this remains a headline-driven tape: the moves are tradeable, but only at a position size that survives being wrong.
Indices and oil: relief rally, war premium out
The Dow jumped about 900 points (+1.86%) to 50,848, the S&P 500 rose 1.75% to 7,394 and the Nasdaq led with +2.54% to 25,810, powered by a chip rebound in Micron, Intel and Nvidia. Crude went the other way as the conflict premium unwound: WTI fell more than 4% toward $86 and Brent slid to about $89, its lowest in almost two months.
What it means for the day ahead
Everything keys off the peace talks now. A signed deal likely extends the equity rally and keeps pressure on oil and gold; any breakdown puts the war trade straight back on. Behind it sits the June 16 to 17 Fed meeting with a hot PPI in the background. Ranges remain wide in both directions, so size positions for the volatility you are actually in, not the calm you would prefer.
Live WTI crude chart (last month). Prices shown are current, not the session covered above.
This market wrap is for information and education only and is not financial advice, a forecast, or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument. Prices and percentage moves are approximate, sourced from public reports, and may be delayed or revised. Trading forex, CFDs and leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors; you can lose more than your deposit. Always do your own research.